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First, the probability of causation cannot be computed solely from the relative risk. Second, the exposure dose at which the probability of causation exceeds 50% (the point at which exposure causation is more likely than not) may fall well below the doubling dose (the dose at which the incidence of disease is doubled). Greenland concluded: In particular, and contrary to common perceptions, a rate fraction of 50% (or equivalently, a rate ratio of 2) does not correspond to a 50% probability of causation. [110]

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Kishore Chaudhry, Deputy Director General (Sr