Methods Data sources We obtained national tabulated data on the numbers of deaths from cancer in Australia from 1955 to 2019 by sex, age and calendar year from the WHOs Mortality Database10 sourced from the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (online supplemental material 1).11 Australian population data by sex, 5-year age group and calendar year from 1955 to 2044 (Series B, based on medium population growth) were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Statistics.12 13 Smoking data for 19452004 were obtained from the International Smoking Statistics Web Edition14 and the National Drug Strategy Household Survey (NDSHS) data for 20072019.15 Sexageperiod-specific smoking prevalence and cigarette tar exposure per capita in Australia were reconstructed backwards to 1920 and forwards to 2044.3 For the purposes of our analyses, all data were aggregated into 5-year age groups and 5-year calendar periods

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